Every Match is a Risk: Football and Domestic Violence in the Federal District

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between football and domestic violence in the Federal District, characterized as “neutral territory”, aiming to map post-match vulnerability windows that can inform police resource allocation. Based on 118,240 Maria da Penha Law records (2020–2025), 1,037 matches of the five most popular clubs, and Poisson regression models with temporal fixed effects, results nuance the frustration-aggression theory: its applicability is conditional. Inferential analysis shows that match days increase incident counts (IRR = 1.018; p < 0.05). Stratified analysis reveals that on weekdays, defeats raise risk by +10.5% compared to wins, hypothetically via interaction with occupational stress; on weekends, the direction reverses: wins raise risk more than defeats (−3.2%), suggesting celebration mediated by alcohol consumption as the dominant vector. Comparison between televised and in-person matches at Mané Garrincha Stadium (n = 20 with spectators) indicates subtle hourly distribution shifts, with a +1.2 percentage point increase at dawn. Spatial analysis by distance zone from the stadium does not confirm the displacement gradient predicted by routine activities theory. The substantive contribution lies in demonstrating that every match day constitutes a risk window, regardless of outcome.